Why do we need to know?

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">I don't know what I know, but I do know that what I know isn't sufficient enough and that what i don't know will always be greater than that which i know<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

The youthful Meno spoke similar words to Socrates, to which the reply was essentially "What do you make of those who study? Are they better off for it?"

Sometimes it's not about eating the catch, but rather it's about the thrill of the hunt. Many of these quests may yeild rather light fare, but if even 1% of the science being worked out on this board happens to prove correct, we expand our horizon as a species. Frankly, we need this sort of questing. Humanity is too stupid to control it's own spread, so we're going to have to colonize eventually. I forget who did the math on it, but some scientist I was reading once calculated that if humans spread at the rate they are currently spreading, we're going to need billions of planets within a few centuries. I forget the exact details, but the point is that humanity is doomed if we sit still because we clearly can't manage ourselves worth a damn.

"Regret can only change the future" -Me

I read of a similar calculation years ago in my favorite magazine, <b>Analog Science Fiction and Fact</b>. Each month they have one or more fact articles in addition to some pretty good stories. One month a fact article presented the following:

The mass of an average human is about 75 kilograms. This mass comes from the ground we walk on. IOW, each time a human is born and grows to maturity, 75 kilograms of matter is converted from planet-stuff to human-stuff. When we die that mass is re-converted into planet-stuff.

At the current rate of growth of the human race it would take:

* About 2,400 years to convert the entire mass of Earth into human beings.
* about 4,000 years to convert the entire mass of the solar system into human beings
* About 10,000 years to convert the entire mass of the visible universe into human beings.

Fascinating, but also not realistic. Sort of like watching a denominator go to zero and seriously considering the possibility that something physical could follow that equation all the way to the singularity.

The real point of the article was that there is only one thing we know for sure about any trend (this article was a rebuttal to the hysteria in the press over the then-recent publication of the <i>Club of Rome</i>'s report warning that we were within a few years of growing ourselves to death by using up EVERTthing).

That one thing we know about trends is that no trend can continue forever.

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The COR forcast, based as it was on a flawed premiss, was obviously wrong. Not only did we not run out of EVERYthing, we didn't run out ANYthing.

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Because the trend changed. The most recent data suggests that our world wide population will peak at about 9 billion. And then start shrinking. Whether we meant to manage ourselves worth a damn or not, we could have done worse.

LB

Hmmm. If this new trend lasts for a while we might really be in trouble. My business experience teaches me that as difficult as it is to manage a period of growth, it is a walk in the park compared to managing a period of decline.

Dang,
LB

I just remembered another science article from <i>Analog</i>. In this one the author asked the question "What resources does mankind need to be able to establish, maintain and grow a *permanent* off-world presence?"

Near the top of the list is " ... an on-world populaton of at least 10 billion people".

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I sure hope his estimates are off a little. Or that some other trend changes and we can squeek by with what we have.

LB

Compared to the exponential growth of computer technology, the population growth rate has always been puny. Try applying those prediction methods with computation speed and power doubling every 12 months. According to Hans Moravek a cheap computer may be smarter than a human in the 2020's. How long will it take for a computer to outsmart the entire human race? Will it keep some human pets around for its own amusement, or will it rid the planet of the infestation that created it?