Age of the Galaxy in MM

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Everything is fundamentally the same at every place, at every time, and on every scale -- including the probable numbers of intelligent civilizations.
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This is a good point from your perspective (even though I don't agree with it from mine). The state of civilizations in the galaxy is at equilibrium like the equilibrium between predator and prey on the Serengetti Plane, i.e. "why aren't there many more lions since they could just eat the other animals and increase their population?"... equilibrium. Our place would be to find the reasons for this particular equilibrium.

From my perspective, there is nothing conceivable that could "kill off" a civilization which had taken to colonization in a big way. It would just continue indefinitely. Ergo, if there are many civilizations and space travel is possible ... then ... statistically speaking, the galaxy is completely explored and at least some UFOs represent our "visitors of the moment".

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">But in the long run, dominant civilizations come and go.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">
Yes, but they don't disappear. Take France for instance. You could say that they were once Goths or Franks or even Vikings, i.e. what is dominant comes and goes but France is still there continuously.

So too with galactic colonization. To remove all traces of a dominant civilization would require that they "commit suicide" for there is nothing to pry them out of the planets which they've occupied ... unless they go to war with other worlds. Do you contemplate eternal warfare regardless of the state of any civilization? I personally believe that there could not be, in principle, a WW127,452 - the War to End All Wars ;o). Continuous warfare is to me ridiculous and is only a stage in the development of primitive civilizations that have little control over reality by way of technology.

Given SM constraints, the time required to colonize the entire galaxy could not possibly exceed 100,000,000 years and is probably nearer 10,000,000 years. So even if a dominant culture did manage to leave a planet (completely), if there are thousands of other planets with indigenous life on them, that abandoned planet would be recolonized in about 3 nanoseconds ... after all ... it's available once again.

If I may add my 2 cents here. Advanced civilizations might also 'protect' newly formed worlds as new natural life might develop there and colonizing them would be seen as a contaminating act. This might be more of a moral issue.
If I put my 'think like an advanced civilization hat on' protecting life (even lesser developed forms) would be an important one. But perhaps some civilizations might be like people with different personalities and moral levels.
Anyway, I'm still busy with that simulator and one day I can simulate how it is colonized... []

Rudolf

EBTX,

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">the galaxy is completely explored and at least some UFOs represent our "visitors of the moment".
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The galaxy can never be completely explored since forms come and go and are unbounded in number. It could be the case that the O2 molecules I'm breathing in are comprised of forms that house other forms: we breath forms continuously and are therefore visited continuously. []

Jan,

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><b>The galaxy can never be completely explored since forms come and go and are unbounded in number. It could be the case that the O2 molecules I'm breathing in are comprised of forms that house other forms: we breath forms continuously and are therefore visited continuously. </b><hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

ANS: Yea, I have hosted flu colonies more than once.[]


"Imagination is more important than Knowledge" -- Albert Einstien

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by EBTX</i>
<br />From my perspective, there is nothing conceivable that could "kill off" a civilization which had taken to colonization in a big way. It would just continue indefinitely.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">I am having no trouble conceiving several hazards that could wipe out a civilization that has colonized. Some leading prospects are supernova explosions and gamma ray bursts. Whatever is producing the electron-positron annihilation spectrum near our galactic center is probably another. On a longer-term perspective, once the whole galaxy dissolves or explodes, it is sure to be rough going for even the most advanced civilization without energy or resources.

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">but they don't disappear. ... To remove all traces of a dominant civilization would require that they "commit suicide" for there is nothing to pry them out of the planets which they've occupied ...<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">You missed my point about the number of individuals required to maintain a technology. All planets are subject to natural hazards. Local ones here are tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunami, volcanoes, floods and fires. Planetary disasters include asteroid and comet impacts, giant solar flares, long-term changes in solar luminosity, planetary and moon explosions anywhere in the system, cosmic ray events, magnetic pole reversals (our radiation shields may go down), passage through giant molecular clouds, etc. Biological disasters include wars, plagues, nuclear power plant meltdowns, industrial changes in atmospheric gases, flooding and violent weather induced by polar cap melting, etc.

The point is that, while none of these things are guaranteed to wipe out civilizations completely, they do reduce the number of individuals to below the threshold for maintaining a technological civilization. Once the technology is gone, the species is essentially reset to where humans were roughly three million years ago -- struggling to survive and passing along legends of a "Garden of Eden" and a "golden age" to their offspring.

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">So even if a dominant culture did manage to leave a planet (completely), if there are thousands of other planets with indigenous life on them, that abandoned planet would be recolonized in about 3 nanoseconds ... after all ... it's available once again.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">You are just thinking of how easy it is to reproduce. But without support from the home world able to send knowledge, resources, and expertise, all colonies would soon lose their technology, which makes them unable to spread further unless/until they evolve back up the ladder, can support a stable population of perhaps billions, and rediscover technology and space travel. Depending on the hostility of the environment, that may or may not ever happen. But there are probably thousands of colonies that simply die out for every one that survives a lengthy series of natural disasters and makes it back to interstellar travel -- a lofty place we ourselves have not yet achieved. But for long-term survival, we must reach the point where we are sending viable populations with sufficient genetic diversity to many worlds and continuing to supply them with technology support until they each reproduce many millions of individuals and become self-supporting.

I'd give long odds against that happening very often. I'd give longer odds against reaching the level of a self-sustaining intergalactic civilization. -|Tom|-